Strict monetary policy of the Central Bank promotes deflation
Strict monetary policy of the Central Bank contributes to deflation. The tough monetary policy of the Central Bank contributes to deflation of 0.1% last month, which, along with the start of the tax period and uncertainty about the US monetary policy, has a beneficial effect on the ruble / dollar rate. In the absence of serious geopolitical news, the national currency will move after quotes on commodity markets, showing a rather sluggish dynamics.
Oil prices continue to decline slowly in the conditions of OPEC’s growth in exports, which, contrary to expectations, increased sales by 370,000 barrels per day to 26.11 million in the past month, an increase in the number of drilling rigs in US shale companies, which apparently decided to resume active extraction of raw materials and all this occurs in conditions of lower IEA forecasts regarding global demand for hydrocarbons. In such conditions, quotes of “black gold” can all drop to 48.50 dollars per barrel by the end of the month.
Next week, large-scale conversion operations of domestic exporters will continue to support the national currency and it is likely that the negative on the commodity market should not have a significant impact on the ruble exchange rate, which may well stop at the level of 59.40 per dollar and 69.45 euros by the end of the week.